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Table of contents for the month of April 2018

Chronic non-communicable diseases are the major threat to the health of population in developing countries. Tobacco smoking is one of the preventable underlying factors responsible for this group of diseases. Pakistan faces a higher prevalence of smoking despite the fact that masses are well aware about the ill health effects arising from smoking, thus leading to high unmet need for cessation of smoking. The current community based study on three hundred & twenty subjects looked into the situation unmet need & determinants for higher level of unmet need. The overall prevalence of current smoking in both genders was 49%. There was however no significant relation between gender & smoking (p=0.28). The met need to quit smoking was 21.5% while unmet need to quit smoking was computed as 26.15%. The reasons for not being able to quit smoking were that smokers were of the opinion that they could fully control their smoking habits in future (28.6%; p=0.08), smokers were unaware about smoking cessation services (54.4%; p=0.02), lack of training to health care providers for imparting counseling services (37.2%; p=0.05), the subjects expressed need to establish locally based services with community based smoking cessation advisors (78.6%; p=0.01). The study concluded that in presence of high motivation among smokers to quit smoking, there is urgent need to provide appropriate smoking cessation services to the target population.

Abstract Thomas Robert Malthus Theory of population highlighted the potential dangers of over population. He stated that while the populations of the world would increase in geometric proportions, the food resources available for them would increase in arithmetic proportions. This study was carried out to find the trend, fit a model and forecast for the population growth rate of Nigeria.The data were based on the population growth rate of Nigeria from 1982 to 2012 obtained from World Bank Data (data.worldbank.org). Both time and autocorrelation plots were used to assess the Stationarity of the data. Dickey-Fuller test was used to test for the unit root. Ljung box test was used to check for the fit of the fitted model. Time plot showed that the random fluctuations of the data are not constant over time. There was an initial decrease in the trend of the growth rate from 1983 to 1985 and an increase in 1986 which was constant till 1989 and then slight fluctuations from 1990 to 2004 and a general increase in trend from 2005 to 2012. There was a slow decay in the correlogram of the ACF and this implied that the process is non stationary. The series was stationary after second differencing, Dickey-Fuller = -4.7162, Lag order = 0, p-value = 0.01 at ?= 0.05. The p-value (0.01) and concluded that there is no unit root i.e the series is stationary having d=2. Correlogram and partial correlogram for the second-order differenced data showed that the ACF at lag 1 and lag 5 exceed the significant bounds and the partial correlogram tailed off at lag 2.The identified order for the ARIMA(p,d,q) model was ARIMA(2,2,1). The estimate of AR1 co-efficient =1.5803 is observed to be statistically significant but the estimated value does not conforms strictly to the bounds of the stationary parameter hence was excluded from the model. =-0.9273 is observed to be statistically significant and conformed strictly to the bounds of the stationary parameter , hence was maintained in the model. The estimate of MA1 co-efficient = - 0.1337 was observed to be statistically significant conformed strictly to the bounds of the parameter invertibility. For ARIMA (2, 2, 0) the estimate of AR1 co-efficient =1.5430 was observed to be statistically significant and not conformed strictly to the bounds of the parameter stationary, hence excluded from the model. The estimate of AR 2 co-efficient =-0.9000 is observed to be statistically significant and conformed strictly to the bounds of the parameter stationary, hence retained in the model. The ARIMA (2, 2, 0) is considered the best model. It has the smallest AIC. The Ljung test showed that residuals are random and implies that the model is fit enough for the data. The forecast Arima function gives us a forecast of the Population Growth Rate in the next thirty eight (38) years, as well as 80% and 95% prediction intervals for those predictions i.e up to 2050. Keywords: Modelling, ARIMA Model, Parameter, Dickey-Fuller, Stationarity

In recent years, fuzzy modeling technique has been successfully employed to model complex systems, where classical methods e.g. mathematical and model-free methods are inapplicabe due to the lack of sufficient information. Generally model free-methods such as neural networks are prefered when a significant amount of data exists as they provide more robust means to identify and reproduce the existing patterns in the available data. However, when limited amount of data exist but ambiguous or imprecise information are available, fuzzy reasoning provides a way to understand system behavior. Before Bouma (1989) introduced the term pedo-transfer functions (PTFs), described as translating data we have into what we need, some hydraulic properties’ PTFs had been developed in modeling water movement and solute transport in soil due to the increasing of computational speed and expanding of models’ complexity (Gupta and Larson, 1979). Many studies related to modeling various soil parameters using different types of PTFs has been conducted (Schaap et al., 1998; McBratney et al., 2002; Vos et al., 2005).

In the United States, foreign-born individuals are more than twice as likely to start new ventures, immigrant-owned businesses, however, fail within the first 5 years. The purpose of this single case study was to explore the strategies U.S.-based Togolese small business owners who were engaged in entrepreneurial activities in Togo. The Schumpeterian entrepreneurship theory underpinned the study and served as a theoretical reference. Interview data were collected from 20 successful Togolese small business owners who resided in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, who were engaged in entrepreneurial activities in Togo, and who had been in business for more than 5 years. Data analysis involved using coding techniques and word clustering, and qualitative data analytical software. The use of methodological triangulation enabled deeper analysis and added to the rigor of the study. The key themes emerging from the coding and thematic analysis of interviews included motivation and entrepreneurial characteristics such as risk propensity, entrepreneurial education, leadership, self-confidence, and vision. The findings of the study may improve the social and business success of immigrant business owners, and entrepreneurs may use the knowledge to improve business success, which could lead to the creation of jobs and improvement in the standard of living of U.S.-based Togolese entrepreneurs. The discoveries from the research may also contribute for the welfare of local communities in Togo, as the diaspora flow of investments and remittances from the United States may increase.

Didymoplexis seidenfadenii Sathish & Ormerod, Ixora agasthyamalayana Sivad & N. Mohanan, Kunstleria keralensis C. N. Mohanan & N. C. Nair, Melochia nodiflora Swartz, Merremia cissoides (Lam.) Hall. f. and Synedrella vialis (Less.) A. Garay, are reported here as additions to the flora of Tamil Nadu. A brief description with relevant notes is provided for the easy identification of taxa in the field.

In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a new algorithm for distribution system planning. The proposed algorithm does not require prior knowledge of candidate substation location and can obtain the “number, location and service area” of HV/MV substations, the optimal feeder configuration and the optimal sizes of branch conductors while satisfying constraints such as current capacity, voltage drop and heuristic rules. Several algorithms are proposed for distribution systems planning. A comprehensive algorithm is developed for obtaining the optimal “number, location and service area” of substation using GA and a generalized algorithm is modified to optimal feeder path on minimum loss criterion. Direct approach load flow is used for solving radial distribution networks and branch conductor optimization algorithm. The load flow algorithm and branch conductor optimization techniques are used as subroutine in the generalized distribution systems planning algorithm. Through numerical example the validity of proposed method is verified.

The ordinal regression is a method that is used to robust the model when dependent variable is ordinal and Independent variables may be dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous or combination of these. Ordinal logistic regression is used to predict the “odds” of having a lower or a higher value for dependent variable (y), based on independent variable (x). In practice, the frequently used type of model is a proportional odds model in ordinal logistic regression. HIV testing is necessary for preventing and reducing the HIV transmission. However, there are various Socio-demographic and HIV related behavior factors contribute the high or low HIV testing in general population and high risk groups. Intend of this study find out the important factors of the HIV testing in Injecting drug users (IDUs) patients. The ordinal logistic regression model makes assumptions about the nature of the relationship between the order response variable HIV testing Methods: Total 139 IDUs patients’ collect the information for this research based on specific questioner from the district Kamur in Bihar. In study, Ordinal logistic regression analysis to determine the factors which are considered to be a significant contributor in HIV testing. The ordinal logistic regression model was used to build models for dependent variable HIV testing and independent variables which are Age, Marital Status, Education, Occupation, Stigma, Income, STI/STD problems, Needle injecting sharing and HIV information. Results: In this research apply the proportional odds model for confirm the applicability of the ordinal logistic model. We determine the all parameter the significant of the model. We found that Needle sharing, Abscess problem, Abuse, Heard about STI, HIV, Income, HIV knowledge, HIV transmission through multiple partners shows significant contribution to IDUs patient for HIV testing. Conclusion: This study has made an attempt to recognize the predictors of HIV testing for injecting drug users by developing an ordinal logistic regression model.

Synthesis of a nanocomposite hydrogel P-PAMPS-PAAm/ZnO, has been made by the polymerization of 2-acrylamido-2-methyl-1-propanesulfonic acid (AMPS) and acrylamide (AAm) in the presence of pectin (P) and zinc oxide (ZnO) using microwave irradiation technique. FTIR, XRD, SEM and TEM studies indicated the formation of a gel network and incorporation of ZnO particles within gel structure. The system was evaluated for adsorption of Cu (II) and Pb(II) ions from aqueous solutions. About 77 mgg-1 of Cu(II) and 125 mgg-1 of Pb(II) could be adsorbed from aqueous solutions. Different isotherm models have been employed to study the adsorption process and the data is found to fit well with Langmuir isotherm model. The kinetic studies revealed a second-order adsorption process. About 95% of the metal ions adsorbed could be stripped in acidic medium of pH 1.2 indicating the reusability of the gel.

The study aimed at detoxifying JCSM using biological treatments (spontaneously, fungi cocktail and specific). Shimadzu HPLC/ UV was used to quantify phorbol esters in Jatropha curcas seed meal under isocratic conditions. After six days of fermentation, cocktail of fungi, and spontaneous fermentation of JCSM was effective in reducing PE concentration. Defattening seed meal using cold maceration in petroleum ether reduced phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate (PMA) in the JCSM from 40.42 to 10.9 ng/ml prior to solid state fermentation. Spontaneous fermentation of defatted JCSM further reduced PMA from 10.9 to 5.05 ng/ml (53.6%). Fungi isolated during spontaneous fermentation included, Aspergillus niger (B), Aspergillus flavus (A), Rhizopus Stolonifer (C), Penicillium chrysogenum (D) and Fusarium species. The reduction of PE ranged between 10.71 – 1.46 ng/ml when single or a combination of the fungi isolates were used in solid state fermentation of the defatted seed meal. P. chrysogenum reduced phorbol ester levels (PE) in defatted seed 76.5%, R. stolonifer 43.3%, A. flavus 35.6% and A. niger 1.72%. When fungi isolates were paired, A. niger + P. chrysogenum (BD) reduced PE levels by 13.7%, A. flavus + A. niger 64.5%, A. flavus + P. chrysogenum 70.3%, A. flavus + R. stolonifer 78.8%, A. niger + R. stolonifer 86.6% and R. stolonifer + P. chrysogenum 86.6%. The treatment combination of A. niger + R. stolonifer + P. chrysogenum reduced PE levels by 84.0%, A. flavus + A. niger + R. stolonifer to 67.2% and A. flavus + R. stolonifer + P. chrysogenum to 62.3%. P. chrysogenum was effective as a single isolate but its activity was suppressed when paired with A. niger. Treatments of the deffated seed with, A. flavus + R. stolonifer; A. niger + R. stolonifer; R. stolonifer + P. chrysogenum; and A. niger + R. stolonifer + P. chrysogenum were the only combination that exceeded the phorbol reductive activity of P. chrysogenum in. It could therefore be concluded that Jatropha curcas seed meals can be detoxified by solid state fermentation.